How presidential election contracts work
Will Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? Get $1 for every contract you own if your candidate is certified in January—and nothing if they aren't. Or close your position before January 6, 2025. This is a market, not voting.
Additional fees apply.
FAQs
Event contracts are a type of forecast contract that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifies as swaps. Their value depends on whether a specific event happens by a certain time. These contracts are based on a simple "Yes" or "No" answer to a question about the event, known as the event question.
There are 2 event questions for the 2024 presidential election:
- 1. Will Kamala Harris win the US presidential election in 2024?
- 2. Will Donald Trump win the US presidential election in 2024?
You can buy the Yes contract for either of these event contracts. You can only own the Yes contract for one candidate. Each contract that you own will pay $1 on Jan 7 if that candidate is certified as president by the US Congress. It will pay $0 if not.
Read the full contract terms and conditions.
You can only own the Yes contract for one candidate.
Each contract represents a probability between $0.00 and $1.00, with each cent effectively representing a 1% probability that the event will occur. For example, if a candidate's contract is priced at $0.53, this can be interpreted as a 53% probability that the candidate will win according to that market.
This allows participants to assign a probability to the outcome and take advantage of any perceived undervaluation.
Note that for this event contract, the exchange that executes your orders, ForecastEx, embeds $0.01 within the price. Therefore the two sides of the contract add up to $1.01 or 101%. So, it's not an exact probability. Your order will only be executed if the two sides of the contract add up to $1.01.
Those numbers represent open interest. That's the number of contracts people are holding for the Yes contract of that candidate.
The payout, or settlement, is $1 or $0 per contract owned depending on the outcome of the event on January 7, 2025.
Robinhood charges a $0.01 commission per contract. The exchange that executes your orders, ForecastEx, embeds $0.01 within the price of the contract, so that the Yes and No contracts add up to $1.01. At settlement, the winning side will be paid out $1.00. ForecastEx retains the additional $0.01.
An immediate-or-cancel (IOC) order is an order to buy or sell that must be executed immediately. Any part of an IOC order that can't be filled will be canceled.
Robinhood will send a 1099-B for event contracts trades. We recommend that you consult a tax advisor about your personal tax situation.
The risk of loss in trading commodity interests can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Commodity interests are not appropriate for everyone. Displayed prices are based on real-time market sentiment. Read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure for more information about the uses and risks of forecast event contracts. This event contract is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through with ForecastEx, LLC. Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (“RHD”), is a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Member of National Futures Association (NFA) (NFA ID 0424278)
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